Probability to Win

Updated on 26 Mar 2024
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Probability to win is the likelihood of a variant to best the other variant(s) in the test. This percentage is calculated by using Bayesian significance, based on the collected data so far. Unlike regular significance, which needs a certain amount of data collection, the Bayesian Significance method analytically generates data to provide relevant results, especially in low sample campaigns.

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With probability to win, you can see which variant will be the winner in your campaign. Accordingly, instead of significance, you can use this metric as a base if you want to run this variant with more traffic allocation.

We strongly recommend you duplicate your campaign to make changes on its traffic allocation, goals, segments or rules to not create any discrepancy in the statistics.

You can see which variant in your campaign is more likely to succeed on both executive summary dashboard and campaign statistics.

Executive Summary Dashboard

Probability to Win is one of the metrics that you can track on your dashboard.
1. Go to your Campaign Analytics > Personalizations with Control Group.
2. Probability to Win is auto-selected in the metrics. Select/deselect it.
3. Scroll to the right to see the respective column if it is not visible.
4. Sort your campaigns based on Probability to Win if you need to.

Campaign Analytics

You can see the probability to win of your variants on the campaign-level statistics as well.
1. Go to the statistics page of your campaign using the menu on the executive summary dashboard or campaign listing page.